How the US Fumbled Its Trade Leverage on China

In 2016, both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton took a firm stance against the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) trade deal. Trump called it a “disaster,” while Clinton, despite backing it as Secretary of State, withdrew her support during the campaign. Their positions were driven by rising anti-globalisation sentiment and pressure from protectionist voters. But this political move has now boxed the US into a trade corner. And China has exploited it.

The TPPA was not just a trade deal. It was a strategic play to unite key economies under US-led rules. The agreement would have covered 40% of global trade and served as a powerful bloc to counterbalance China’s growing influence. However, by abandoning it, the US left a vacuum that China was quick to fill.

Today, China has become the top trade partner for twice as many countries as the US. But, that shift did not happen by accident. It is the result of years of trade diplomacy, Belt and Road investments, and aggressive market penetration. Meanwhile, the US has struggled to build the same level of alignment with its allies.

US Tariffs, China Trade Wins

The current US-China tariff truce shows just how weak the US position has become. Trump’s aggressive tariff war backfired. It hurt American farmers, strained supply chains, and led to a global reshuffling of trade routes. China responded not only with tariffs but also by turning inward, boosting local production, and diversifying its markets.

Now, the US faces a tougher environment. The idea of returning to a TPP-style agreement in 2025 is unrealistic. Many nations won’t risk damaging ties with Beijing. Even those open to working with the US want clearer strategy and consistency — something they did not get in 2016.

In trying to win over voters, both Clinton and Trump missed the bigger picture. They dropped the one tool that could have given the US real leverage over China. That mistake is now shaping today’s trade struggles.